General macroeconomic monthly review prepared under the supervision of the main economist of the Polish Chamber of Commerce Mr. Piotr Soroczyński.
- GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND ITS COMPONENTS
In the fourth quarter of 2021, the GDP dynamics amounted to 7.6% y / y. In the first quarter of 2022 it could be 8.1%, and in the second quarter it will be 4.3%. Throughout 2021, GDP in nominal terms amounted to PLN 2,622 billion (EUR 574 billion). For 2022, the GDP dynamics is projected at 3.8%. In nominal terms, GDP will amount to PLN 3,030 billion (EUR 668 billion).
- POPULATION, LABOR MARKET, WAGES AND BENEFITS
In March, the number of registered unemployed fell by 19.7 thousand. up to 902.1 thous. people. The unemployment rate was 5.4%. The unemployment rate was lower than in February by 0.1 percentage point. A year ago, in March, the unemployment rate was 6.4%. March usually brings an improvement in unemployment statistics. There is a demand for seasonal work in construction, agriculture and services.
Spring and summer will bring a drop in unemployment. The local minimum is expected in October, when 810,000 will be unemployed. people and the unemployment rate will be 4.8%. At the end of 2022, the unemployment rate will amount to 5.0%, and the number of unemployed will amount to 840,000.
In the period from January to March 2022, prices were on average 9.1% higher than in the corresponding period of 2021. In April, a strong increase in the annual inflation rate is expected again.
In March, industrial prices increased by 4.9% and were on average 20.0% higher than in the previous year.
- CURRENT TRANSFER BALANCE AND ITS MAIN COMPONENTS
At the beginning of April, the National Bank of Poland presented estimated data on the balance of payments in February. The current account balance in February 2022 was negative and amounted to EUR -2,871 million. In the previous month, there was a deficit of -EUR 638 million. A year ago, a surplus of EUR 276 million was recorded.
The review can be downloaded here: Monthly_2022 04 29.pdf